Dynamics in South African Elections

I bumped on News24's page showing maps of previous elections results (http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results) - real interesting stuff. Makes one wonder what's the future for some of the popular parties we have had in the past as well as the new kids on the blocks.

1. Where have the real neck-on-neck battles been happening - especially between the major parties? and in this year's elections, who will dominate these areas?
2. Where and to which parties did the ANC previously loose votes to? Will this get worse after this year's elections especially with the new parties out to get their support (i.e. Agang & EFF).. not to mention that DA & COPE also seem to have been serious in this mission
3. Last time (change from 2004 to 2009) we saw DA & COPE (1st elections for COPE) seriously challenge ANC in some areas, but will they win these areas from ANC this time around?
4. COPE got a second chance, but will they win over the previous areas they challenged ANC or DA? Or will they loose their advance?
5. Oh yeah, and how about the new NFP party challenge on IFP's grounds?

What do you think will happen?

So yeah, being a GIS person, I decided to play around with the same data News24 used and will do a similar thing after Wednesday's elections results to answer these questions... this is what I came up with:

Previous National Assembly elections results for 2004 and 2009

Highly contested municipalities for 2004 and 2009 elections - Municipalities where the vote gap between the winning & 1st runner-up parties was only 6%

Highly contested municipalities for 2004 and 2009 elections - Municipalities where the vote gap between the winning & 1st runner-up parties was only 10%

What can we expect for this year's elections - Who is in trouble, by how much and in what areas?